Bankroll growth simulator
Project bankroll growth over thousands of bets
Project how your bankroll evolves over thousands of bets at a given edge and staking method.
What does it simulate?
This calculator simulates a bettor's long-term bankroll trajectory. It uses your starting bankroll, your edge per bet (in %), the number of bets per period, and your staking strategy to project how the bankroll grows over time. The result shows why discipline matters more than picking individual winners.
A bettor with a 3% edge betting 5% of bankroll per bet (Half Kelly) will roughly double their bankroll every 80-100 bets. A bettor with the same edge betting 20% per bet (overbetting) is likely to go bust before doubling. The math is brutal and unforgiving — that's why Value Bet detection and disciplined stake sizing matter more than any individual win.
See also: Kelly criterion, Value bet finder, Stop-loss planner
How to use this calculator
- 1Enter your starting bankroll.
- 2Enter your average edge per bet (in %). Pros average 2-5%.
- 3Enter how many bets you'll place.
- 4Choose your staking method (flat or Kelly fraction).
Example: 200 bets with 3% edge
Starting bankroll €1,000. Edge per bet: 3%. Average odds 2.00. 200 bets at Half Kelly (~3% of bankroll). Expected final bankroll: about €1,800 — an 80% growth. Same edge but full Kelly (~6%): potentially €3,200 but with much higher chance of dropping below €500 along the way. Risk of ruin matters as much as expected return.
When to use
- Setting realistic expectations before starting a betting bankroll
- Comparing flat vs Kelly vs fractional Kelly outcomes
- Understanding why short-term losing streaks happen even with edge
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bankroll growth simulator calculator?
This calculator simulates a bettor's long-term bankroll trajectory. It uses your starting bankroll, your edge per bet (in %), the number of bets per period, and your staking strategy to project how the bankroll grows over time.
How does the Bankroll growth simulator calculator work in practice?
Starting bankroll €1,000. Edge per bet: 3%. Average odds 2.00. 200 bets at Half Kelly (~3% of bankroll). Expected final bankroll: about €1,800 — an 80% growth. Same edge but full Kelly (~6%): potentially €3,200 but with much higher chance of dropping below €500 along the way. Risk of ruin matters as much as expected…
When should I use the Bankroll growth simulator calculator?
Setting realistic expectations before starting a betting bankroll. Comparing flat vs Kelly vs fractional Kelly outcomes. Understanding why short-term losing streaks happen even with edge.