Arbitrage (surebet) calculator
Surebet stake distribution for guaranteed profit
Calculate the stake distribution needed to guarantee profit on a 2-way arbitrage between two bookmakers.
What is arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage betting (also called surebets, scalping, or middling) exploits price differences between bookmakers. When Bookmaker A's odds on Player 1 plus Bookmaker B's odds on Player 2 imply a total probability under 100%, you can stake both sides and lock in profit no matter who wins. It's risk-free in theory but operationally difficult — bookmakers detect and limit arbitrage bettors quickly. Related techniques: Dutching applies the same math to 3+ outcomes, and Hedging locks profit on an existing bet rather than a fresh market.
See also: Dutching calculator, Bookmaker margin calculator, No-vig (fair odds), 3-way Arbitrage
How to use this calculator
- 1Find two bookmakers with conflicting odds on a 2-outcome market (tennis, MMA, basketball spread).
- 2Enter both decimal odds and the total amount you want to bet across both sides.
- 3The calculator shows exactly how much to bet on each outcome, the locked profit, and your ROI.
- 4If the calculator says 'no arbitrage,' the odds aren't favourable enough — move on.
Example: tennis match arbitrage
Player A is offered at 2.10 on Bookmaker A. Player B is offered at 2.05 on Bookmaker B. Implied probabilities: 1/2.10 + 1/2.05 = 0.476 + 0.488 = 96.4% — that's a 3.6% arbitrage opportunity. With a €1,000 total bankroll, you stake €493 on Player A (€1035 return if wins) and €507 on Player B (€1039 return if wins). Either way, you make about €37 profit. ROI: 3.7%.
Why arbitrage is harder than it looks
Bookmakers limit accounts that consistently arbitrage. Lines move while you're placing bets. Currency conversion eats margins. You need verified accounts at 10+ bookmakers and serious capital to make this worthwhile. We provide the calculator — finding actual arbs and executing them is your job.
When arbitrage works
- Liquid 2-way markets (tennis, MMA, basketball lines) where odds move fast and bookmakers disagree
- When you have multiple verified accounts with enough balance on each
- When the arb is large enough to survive line movement (we suggest 2%+ minimum)
- Never as your sole strategy — you'll get limited at every major bookmaker within months
Frequently asked questions
What is the Arbitrage calculator calculator?
Arbitrage betting (also called surebets, scalping, or middling) exploits price differences between bookmakers. When Bookmaker A's odds on Player 1 plus Bookmaker B's odds on Player 2 imply a total probability under 100%, you can stake both sides and lock in profit no matter who wins.
How does the Arbitrage calculator calculator work in practice?
Player A is offered at 2.10 on Bookmaker A. Player B is offered at 2.05 on Bookmaker B. Implied probabilities: 1/2.10 + 1/2.05 = 0.476 + 0.488 = 96.4% — that's a 3.6% arbitrage opportunity. With a €1,000 total bankroll, you stake €493 on Player A (€1035 return if wins) and €507 on Player B (€1039 return if wins)…
What is the most common mistake with the Arbitrage calculator calculator?
Bookmakers limit accounts that consistently arbitrage. Lines move while you're placing bets. Currency conversion eats margins. You need verified accounts at 10+ bookmakers and serious capital to make this worthwhile. We provide the calculator — finding actual arbs and executing them is your job.
When should I use the Arbitrage calculator calculator?
Liquid 2-way markets (tennis, MMA, basketball lines) where odds move fast and bookmakers disagree. When you have multiple verified accounts with enough balance on each. When the arb is large enough to survive line movement (we suggest 2%+ minimum).