Bet sizing for tipsters
How much to bet on a paid tipster's picks
Calculate the optimal stake size when following a paid tipster — including their fee in the EV math.
Why tipster math is different
When you follow a tipster, your edge isn't your own — it's theirs minus their fee. A €100/month tipster eats €100 of your expected profit before you start. This calculator factors that in. Run their public record through our Tipster reality check first to verify they have edge at all, then use this to size your bets correctly. Apply Kelly criterion math but discounted for fee burden.
See also: Tipster reality check, Kelly criterion, Value bet finder
How to use
- 1Enter tipster's verified edge % (or estimate).
- 2Enter monthly subscription cost.
- 3Enter your bankroll and expected picks per month.
- 4See recommended stake size factoring in fee drag.
Example: 3% edge tipster, €99/month
Tipster: 3% edge, 40 picks/month, €99 fee. Your bankroll: €2000. Without fee: Half Kelly = €30 per bet. With fee: effective edge per bet drops because fee = €2.50 per pick. Adjusted stake: €25. If you bet only €5 per pick (€200/month staked), fee alone destroys EV — you'd need higher bankroll or stake.
When to use
- Before subscribing to any paid tipster
- Sizing bets after subscription
- Calculating breakeven bankroll for tipster ROI
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bet sizing for tipsters calculator?
When you follow a tipster, your edge isn't your own — it's theirs minus their fee. A €100/month tipster eats €100 of your expected profit before you start.
How does the Bet sizing for tipsters calculator work in practice?
Tipster: 3% edge, 40 picks/month, €99 fee. Your bankroll: €2000. Without fee: Half Kelly = €30 per bet. With fee: effective edge per bet drops because fee = €2.50 per pick. Adjusted stake: €25. If you bet only €5 per pick (€200/month staked), fee alone destroys EV — you'd need higher bankroll or stake.
When should I use the Bet sizing for tipsters calculator?
Before subscribing to any paid tipster. Sizing bets after subscription. Calculating breakeven bankroll for tipster ROI.