Cashout vs hold calculator
How much value bookmakers steal when you take their cashout offer
Calculate the true fair value of your open bet vs the bookmaker's cashout offer — see the markup.
Why cashouts are always −EV
Cashout is a 'feature' bookmakers added because casual bettors love it. The price they offer for an open bet is ALWAYS lower than the true fair value at current odds. The gap (5-15% typically) is pure bookmaker profit. Casual bettors take cashouts feeling smart; sharps take them only on emotional bets or specific tactical reasons. Use Hedge calculator to manually lock profit at fair prices using exchanges — much better than cashout.
If your model still gives the bet positive EV, NEVER cash out. The 5-15% loss compounds across hundreds of bets into a massive ROI drain.
See also: Hedge calculator, Lay bet (Exchange), Bookmaker margin calculator
How to use
- 1Enter your original stake and odds.
- 2Enter the current live odds for your selection.
- 3Enter the bookmaker's cashout offer.
- 4See fair value vs offer and the bookmaker's markup.
Example: lay 90 minutes before final whistle
Bet €100 at 4.00. Now current live odds are 1.50 (your selection winning). Fair cashout value: €100 × 4.00 ÷ 1.50 = €266.67. Bookmaker offers €240. Markup: €266.67 − €240 = €26.67 (10% skim). If you accept, you're paying €26.67 to lock in early. Better: hedge €240 at 1.50 on an exchange = €269 locked.
When to use
- Before ever accepting a cashout offer
- Comparing cashout vs lay-hedge alternatives
- Tracking cumulative cashout 'tax' over time
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cashout vs hold calculator?
Cashout is a 'feature' bookmakers added because casual bettors love it. The price they offer for an open bet is ALWAYS lower than the true fair value at current odds.
How does the Cashout vs hold calculator work in practice?
Bet €100 at 4.00. Now current live odds are 1.50 (your selection winning). Fair cashout value: €100 × 4.00 ÷ 1.50 = €266.67. Bookmaker offers €240. Markup: €266.67 − €240 = €26.67 (10% skim). If you accept, you're paying €26.67 to lock in early. Better: hedge €240 at 1.50 on an exchange = €269 locked.
When should I use the Cashout vs hold calculator?
Before ever accepting a cashout offer. Comparing cashout vs lay-hedge alternatives. Tracking cumulative cashout 'tax' over time.