Correlated parlay calculator
Calculate correlated parlays where outcomes are linked
True parlay odds when selections are correlated — same-game parlays and linked outcomes.
Why correlation matters
A standard parlay calculator assumes selections are independent. They often aren't. 'Manchester City to win + Manchester City over 1.5 goals' are positively correlated — if City wins, they probably scored 2+. The true probability of both events is HIGHER than multiplying probabilities, so the fair odds are LOWER than 2.10 × 1.50 = 3.15. Bookmakers know this — same-game parlays usually price IN correlation (and charge extra margin). This calculator helps you see the math.
Use Value Bet finder alongside to verify same-game parlay offers — most are −EV because bookmakers overcharge for correlation. Use No-vig calculator to find true single-event probabilities first.
See also: Parlay calculator, Value bet finder, No-vig (fair odds)
How to use
- 1Enter odds for selection 1 and selection 2.
- 2Enter the correlation coefficient (-1 to +1, typically 0.2-0.4 for same-game).
- 3See standard (independent) parlay odds and correlated (true) odds.
Example: City win + City over 1.5 goals
City to win: 1.80 (55.6% implied). City over 1.5: 1.50 (66.7% implied). Independent parlay: 1.80 × 1.50 = 2.70. With correlation 0.30 (positive): true probability ≈ 49%, fair odds ≈ 2.04. If bookmaker offers 3.00 for the SGP, sounds great — but true fair is 2.04, so 3.00 has +47% value. Most SGPs offer much less than fair value due to correlation built into the price.
When to use
- Evaluating same-game parlay offers
- Spotting overpriced correlated combinations
- Building your own correlation-aware parlays
Frequently asked questions
What is the Correlated parlay calculator?
A standard parlay calculator assumes selections are independent. They often aren't.
How does the Correlated parlay calculator work in practice?
City to win: 1.80 (55.6% implied). City over 1.5: 1.50 (66.7% implied). Independent parlay: 1.80 × 1.50 = 2.70. With correlation 0.30 (positive): true probability ≈ 49%, fair odds ≈ 2.04. If bookmaker offers 3.00 for the SGP, sounds great — but true fair is 2.04, so 3.00 has +47% value. Most SGPs offer much less than…
When should I use the Correlated parlay calculator?
Evaluating same-game parlay offers. Spotting overpriced correlated combinations. Building your own correlation-aware parlays.