Draw No Bet & Double Chance calculator
Strip the margin from a 1X2 price, then read off every market derived from it
Enter a 1X2 price. Get the fair odds behind it, and the Draw No Bet and Double Chance prices those imply.
What this calculates
A 1X2 market already contains the answer to every other question about the match result. Draw No Bet, Double Chance, the fair price of the draw — none of them is new information, they are all rearrangements of the same three probabilities. The one thing standing in the way is the margin, which inflates all three prices at once so that they add to more than 100%. Take it out and the rest is arithmetic. The no-vig calculator does the same removal for two-way markets using the proportional method; this page adds the three-way markets and lets you choose how the margin comes off.
See also: No-vig (fair odds), 3-way Arbitrage, Value bet finder
How to use
- 1Enter the three 1X2 prices from one bookmaker, as quoted. Do not mix books — a line taken from two places is not a market.
- 2Pick a removal method. Shin is the usual choice for pricing; proportional is what most calculators quietly assume.
- 3Read the fair 1X2 prices, then the Draw No Bet and Double Chance lines derived from them.
- 4Compare those against what the bookmaker actually offers on the derived markets. The gap, if any, is the bet.
Example: 1.57 / 4.20 / 6.00
Those three prices imply 63.7% + 23.8% + 16.7% = 104.2%, so the margin is 4.17%. By Shin the fair prices are 1.61, 4.44 and 6.47. Draw No Bet on the home side is therefore 1.25, and Double Chance 1X is 1.18. If the bookmaker offers 1.22 on Draw No Bet home, it is charging more margin on the derived market than on the 1X2 it came from — worth knowing before you take it.
The formulas
Start from the implied probabilities p = 1 ÷ odds, which sum to S. The margin is S − 1. Each method turns p into fair probabilities q that sum to exactly 1:
- Proportional: q = p ÷ S — scale everything by the same factor
- Equal margin: q = p − (S − 1) ÷ 3 — take the same slice off each
- Power: find k such that Σ p^k = 1, then q = p^k
- Shin: find z such that Σ q = 1, where q = [√(z² + 4(1 − z)p² ÷ S) − z] ÷ 2(1 − z)
- Then: Draw No Bet home = (q1 + q2) ÷ q1 · Double Chance 1X = 1 ÷ (q1 + qX)
Draw No Bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is a two-way market with the draw removed. Double Chance 12 keeps the draw in and loses to it — which is why the two prices differ even though both are “not the draw”.
Why the method matters more than you think
On a balanced match the four methods land within about 1% of each other and the choice is academic. On a lopsided one it is not. Take 1.05 / 15.00 / 34.00: the same 4.85% margin produces a fair price for the outsider of 35.6 by the proportional method and 64.8 by the power method — the methods disagree by over 110%. That is larger than any edge anyone is realistically betting. The proportional method is the one most tools use silently, and it is the one that most over-prices outsiders, because it assumes the margin is spread evenly across outcomes when bookmakers load it onto longshots. The “methods disagree by” figure on this page is there so you know when the choice is costing you more than your edge is worth. None of the four is the truth — they are four models of how a bookmaker builds its book, and on a short-priced favourite they agree because there is nowhere for the disagreement to hide.
When to use
- Pricing Draw No Bet or Double Chance when the bookmaker quotes only 1X2
- Checking whether the derived markets carry more margin than the 1X2 behind them
- Devigging a three-way market properly instead of dividing by the booksum
- Seeing how much your choice of removal method moves an outsider's fair price
Frequently asked questions
What is the Draw No Bet & Double Chance calculator?
A 1X2 market already contains the answer to every other question about the match result. Draw No Bet, Double Chance, the fair price of the draw — none of them is new information, they are all rearrangements of the same three probabilities.
How does the Draw No Bet & Double Chance calculator work in practice?
Those three prices imply 63.7% + 23.8% + 16.7% = 104.2%, so the margin is 4.17%. By Shin the fair prices are 1.61, 4.44 and 6.47. Draw No Bet on the home side is therefore 1.25, and Double Chance 1X is 1.18. If the bookmaker offers 1.22 on Draw No Bet home, it is charging more margin on the derived market than on the…
What is the most common mistake with the Draw No Bet & Double Chance calculator?
On a balanced match the four methods land within about 1% of each other and the choice is academic. On a lopsided one it is not. Take 1.05 / 15.00 / 34.00: the same 4.85% margin produces a fair price for the outsider of 35.6 by the proportional method and 64.8 by the power method — the methods disagree by over 110%…
When should I use the Draw No Bet & Double Chance calculator?
Pricing Draw No Bet or Double Chance when the bookmaker quotes only 1X2. Checking whether the derived markets carry more margin than the 1X2 behind them. Devigging a three-way market properly instead of dividing by the booksum.