Intuition test (stake-result correlation)
Detect whether your stake size correlates with bet quality
Does your stake size actually correlate with bet quality? Find out if your gut is helping or hurting.
Why this matters
Many bettors believe they 'just know' when a bet is stronger — and stake bigger on those. If true, your bigger stakes should win more often than your smaller ones. This test computes the Pearson correlation between stake size and win/loss outcomes. Positive correlation = your intuition has signal. Negative = your bigger bets actually LOSE more (a common pattern from overconfidence on emotional bets). Pair with Tilt detector and Bet regret index for full self-assessment.
If your correlation is negative, the fix is brutal but simple: flat-stake everything for 2 months. Your bankroll will likely grow.
See also: Tilt detector, Bet regret index, ROI tracker
How to use
- 1Add 20+ bets with stake amount and result (win/lose).
- 2See Pearson correlation between stake and result.
- 3Interpret: positive = good intuition, negative = harmful intuition.
Example: 30-bet analysis
30 bets: 15 at €10-€20 stakes (60% win rate), 15 at €40-€100 stakes (40% win rate). Correlation: −0.32 (moderate negative). Your bigger stakes lose more — likely overconfidence on 'sure things'. Recommendation: flat-stake at €25 for 60 bets. Re-run test.
When to use
- After 20+ tracked bets to validate intuition
- Suspecting overconfidence patterns
- Before scaling up stake sizes
Frequently asked questions
What is the Intuition test (stake-result) calculator?
Many bettors believe they 'just know' when a bet is stronger — and stake bigger on those. If true, your bigger stakes should win more often than your smaller ones.
How does the Intuition test (stake-result) calculator work in practice?
30 bets: 15 at €10-€20 stakes (60% win rate), 15 at €40-€100 stakes (40% win rate). Correlation: −0.32 (moderate negative). Your bigger stakes lose more — likely overconfidence on 'sure things'. Recommendation: flat-stake at €25 for 60 bets. Re-run test.
When should I use the Intuition test (stake-result) calculator?
After 20+ tracked bets to validate intuition. Suspecting overconfidence patterns. Before scaling up stake sizes.