Edge decay calculator
How fast your model's edge evaporates after creation
Model your edge's half-life by sport — bet sooner to capture maximum value before market efficiency catches up.
Why edges decay
Your model says Team A should be 1.85, but bookmaker has them at 2.00. That's a 5% edge — at this moment. As other sharps spot the same value, the line moves toward 1.85. Within hours your edge is 2-3%, by kickoff 0-1%. This calculator estimates decay curves per sport and market. Fast-decay markets (NFL spreads) lose edge in 2-4 hours; slow-decay markets (niche soccer 1X2) hold edge for days. Pair with Bet timing optimizer for entry strategy.
See also: Bet timing optimizer, Closing line velocity, Value bet finder
How to use
- 1Pick the sport and market type.
- 2Enter initial model edge %.
- 3Enter hours from now until kickoff.
- 4See remaining edge at each hour milestone.
Example: NFL spread, 5% edge, 24h to kickoff
NFL spread (fast decay): half-life ~4 hours. Initial 5% edge: at 4h elapsed = 2.5%, at 8h = 1.25%, at 16h = 0.31%. By kickoff: essentially zero edge. Lesson: bet NFL within 4 hours of model creation or skip. Compare: niche soccer 1X2 has 24h half-life — bet within a day still captures meaningful edge.
When to use
- Right after model output to decide bet timing
- Comparing sports for slow-decay opportunities
- Setting alert thresholds in your workflow
Frequently asked questions
What is the Edge decay calculator calculator?
Your model says Team A should be 1.85, but bookmaker has them at 2.00. That's a 5% edge — at this moment.
How does the Edge decay calculator calculator work in practice?
NFL spread (fast decay): half-life ~4 hours. Initial 5% edge: at 4h elapsed = 2.5%, at 8h = 1.25%, at 16h = 0.31%. By kickoff: essentially zero edge. Lesson: bet NFL within 4 hours of model creation or skip. Compare: niche soccer 1X2 has 24h half-life — bet within a day still captures meaningful edge.
When should I use the Edge decay calculator calculator?
Right after model output to decide bet timing. Comparing sports for slow-decay opportunities. Setting alert thresholds in your workflow.